Sunak began his election campaign by scoring an own goal when he asked, “So are you looking forward to all the football?” to a pub in South Wales. He was met with an awkward silence before one local pointed out that Wales were not in the Euros this summer.
Sunak is the Brit that could have the most to gain from national success in the Euro 2024. The UK prime minister called a snap general election that will see voters put down their pints and flock to the polls on June 4th, between England’s potential round of 16 match and the quarter-finals of the European Championship.
What is the mindset behind the decision from Sunak?
England will most likely play Italy or Spain two days after in the quarter-finals, Sunak’s timing suggests he does not have faith in England to make it past the quarter-finals. Instead, the prime minister’s plan seems to be to ride the winning football fever through the group stages and round of 16, which England are strong favourites to advance through, to win the UK general election.
Research from the University of Stanford shows that a local sports team winning in the two weeks before an election boosted the vote towards the current holder of office in that area by 1.05 to 1.47 percentage points. This only increases for major sporting teams that win, where more than 70,000 people watch, the percentage increase after a win is between 2.20 and 2.42 for the side looking to remain in power. The population of England is 57 million, much larger than the 70,000 people watching in the research, which could result in a larger popularity increase for the party in power. Although this might not be enough to solely determine an election it is good news for Sunak and the conservatives and may tip the balance in a close result.
Media coverage will be split between the election and Euro 2024 which ‘mastermind’ Sunak could use to ride the wave of good news and unite the country in a last ditch effort to win the confidence of the nation, that the conservative party are currently losing according to the latest predictions. The timing of the election may also deter voters from the polls causing a lower voter turnout. On top of this, it is estimated that 55,000- 80,000 England fans will make the pilgrimage to Germany as well as thousands of Scotts. Although the government has planned to aid fans in a postal vote system, it could still affect voter turnout.
This is only the second time that a UK general election will coincide with a major international football tournament. The 1970 UK general election, held on June 18th took place during the 1970 FIFA World Cup. Labour had a shock defeat after England crashed out of the tournament in the quarter-final after losing 3-2 to West Germany in extra time. The three lions initially led 2-0 but West Germany made a second half comeback before grabbing the winner in the second half.
Leading up to the 1970 general election opinion polls predicted a comfortable win for labour who had been in power for the previous six years. The heart-breaking defeat to Germany, in the World Cup after England brought home the trophy, could be an explanation for why Britain voted for change.
Sunak’s masterplan in motion
Whilst Sunak did have his first red card offence at the pub in south Wales, he is pushing for the whole nation to support the Three Lions this summer. Scotland have also qualified however, Wales have narrowly missed out on a spot in the competition after losing a penalty shoot-out to Poland. Former Manchester United and current Leeds player, Daniel James missed the deciding penalty to end Wales’s chances of qualifying.
Sunak is a big Southampton fan as his father had a season ticket to St Marys whilst he was growing up. He was in attendance for the Saints Championship semi-final playoff game at St Marys where they defeated West Bromwich Albion over the two legs. He has previously stated that his childhood hero was former midfielder Matt Le Tissier, with his most prized possession being his 18th birthday card signed by the Southampton Squad.
Labour leader Keir Starmer has publicly declared his support for childhood team Arsenal. Despite claiming he couldn’t afford to attend games in his childhood, he recalls supporting the Gunners at the old Highbury stadium. Starmer remembers paying £4 for a ticket to the stadium, which would mean he first attended games in the 1984-85 season at 22 years old.
It is not usual for prime ministers to have strong connections to football. Whilst former prime minister and massive Three Lions fan Boris Johnson never publicly declared for a club team; David Cameron supports Aston Villa whilst Tony Blaire is a Newcastle United fan.
The much-anticipated Euro 2024 championship will kick off next month, which has got all England fans dreaming once more. There is a buzz of optimism in England around the tournament as Southgate and the squad hope to one-up their success in reaching the 2020 final.
Euro 2024 will definitely be memorable for the British prime minister but some argue if he was really full of optimism, he would wait for the Three Lions to bring it home and hold the election days after the final on the of 14th July. Will Sunak’s mastermind plan make him a football genius and remain in office for another five years, or will his England dreams turn into his political nightmares?
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